Yes, Home Prices Are Rising. No, a New Housing Bubble is NOT Forming

We recently reported that home prices are continuing to rise across most of the nation. This has created concern in some pundits that a housing bubble, like we saw ten years ago, is forming again. We want to explain why these concerns are unfounded. The current increase in home values can be easily explained by the theory of supply and demand. Right now, the number of families looking to purchase a home is greater than the supply of homes on the market. Here is a chart that explains how the months’ supply of housing inventory impacts home values: According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors, there is currently a four-month supply of inventory. That puts us in the blue section of the above graphic. Home prices should be appreciating.

The difference in 2006…

A decade ago, the demand for housing was artificially boosted by lending standards that were far too lenient. Today, the strength of the demand for housing is legitimate, as lending standards are nowhere near what they were a decade ago. For proof of this, let’s look at a graph of the Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index: The higher the number, the easier it was to get a mortgage. We can see that from June 2005 to June 2007, mortgage standards were much more lenient than they have been over the last nine years.

Bottom Line

Today’s price increases, unlike those a decade ago, are the result of qualified buyer demand exceeding the current inventory of homes available for sale. Once the supply increases, prices will level out. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Put Your Housing Cost To Work For You!

There are many young people debating whether they should renew the lease on their apartment or sign a contract to purchase their first home. As we have said before, mortgage interest rates are still near historic lows and rents continue to rise.

Housing Cost & Net Worth

Whether you rent or buy, you have a monthly housing cost.

As a buyer, you are contributing to YOUR net worth.

Every mortgage payment is a form of what Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies calls “forced savings.”

“Since many people have trouble saving and have to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome people’s tendency to defer savings to another day.”

The principal portion of your mortgage payment helps build your net worth through building the equity you have in your home.

As a renter, you are contributing to YOUR LANDLORD’S net worth.

Below is an example of the home equity that would be accrued over the course of the next five years if you had purchased a home in January; based on the results of the Home Price Expectation Survey. In this example, simply by paying your mortgage, you would have increased your net worth by over $44,000!
Bottom Line
Use your monthly housing cost to your advantage! Meet with a local real estate professional who can explain the opportunities available in your market. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Exising Home Sales Inch Up In January

Some Highlights:

- Existing Home Sales rose to an annual rate of 5.47 million, representing an 11% increase year-over-year.

- Inventory levels remain below the 6-month supply needed for a normal market at a 4.0-month supply.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, warns: "The spring buying season is right around the corner and current supply levels aren't even close to what's needed to accommodate the subsequent growth in housing demand."

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Gap Between Homeowner’s & Appraiser’s Opinions Widen

In today’s housing market, where supply is very low and demand is very high, home values are increasing rapidly. One major challenge in such a market is the bank appraisal. If prices are surging, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate, comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the price when performing the appraisal for the bank. Every month, Quicken Loans measures the disparity between what a homeowner believes their house is worth as compared to an appraiser’s evaluation in their Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). Here is a chart showing that difference for each of the last 12 months.

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The gap between the homeowner vs. appraiser’s opinion had been heading in the right direction (closer to even), until this past month, when the gap widened again to -1.99%.

Bottom Line 

Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first. If you are planning on entering the housing market this year, meet with an experienced professional who can guide you through this, and any other, obstacle that may arise.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

What If I Wait Until Next Year To Buy A Home?

As a seller, you will be most concerned about ‘short term price’ – where home values are headed over the next six months. As either a first-time or repeat buyer, you must not be concerned only about price but also about the ‘long term cost’ of the home.

Let us explain.

There are many factors that influence the ‘cost’ of a home. Two of the major ones are the home’s appreciation over time, and the interest rate at which a buyer can borrow the funds necessary to purchase their home. The rate at which these two factors can change is often referred to as “The Cost of Waiting”.

What will happen over the next 12 months?

According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, prices are expected to rise by 5.5% by this time next year. Additionally, Freddie Mac’s most recent Economic Commentary & Projections Table predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will appreciate to 4.5% in that same time.

What Does This Mean to a Buyer?

Here is a simple demonstration of what impact these projected changes would have on the mortgage payment of a home selling for approximately $250,000 today:

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Why Do Americans Consider Moving?

Some Highlights:

- In a recent Harris Poll, Americans listed "change in climate/weather" as their top reason for wanting to relocate.

- 41% would move for a better job opportunity.

- Being closer to loved ones filled out 3 of the top 6 reasons why American's move.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos
858.232.8410
Locally Known, Globally Connected
Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Global Property Specialist
David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

The Most Appealing Aspects of Homeownership

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just released their first issue of the Housing Opportunities & Market Experience Survey (HOME). In the report, NAR revealed what Americans believe to be the most appealing aspects of homeownership.

Here is a graph showing the results:

It is interesting to see that the two most appealing aspects had nothing to do with money, but instead, addressed the non-financial benefits of homeownership. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos
858.232.8410
Locally Known, Globally Connected
Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Global Property Specialist
David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

How To Get The Most Money When Selling Your House

Every homeowner wants to make sure they maximize their financial reward when selling their home. But how do you guarantee that you receive maximum value for your house? Here are two keys to ensuring you get the highest price possible.

1. Price it a LITTLE LOW

This may seem counterintuitive. However, let’s look at this concept for a moment. Many homeowners think that pricing their home a little OVER market value will leave them room for negotiation. In actuality, this just dramatically lessens the demand for your house (see chart below). Instead of the seller trying to ‘win’ the negotiation with one buyer, they should price it so that demand for the home is maximized. In that way, the seller will not be fighting with a buyer over the price, but instead will have multiple buyers fighting with each other over the house. Realtor.com, gives this advice:

“Aim to price your property at or just slightly below the going rate. Today’s buyers are highly informed, so if they sense they’re getting a deal, they’re likely to bid up a property that’s slightly underpriced, especially in areas with low inventory.”

2. Use a Real Estate Professional

This too may seem counter intuitive. The seller may think they would net more money if they didn’t have to pay a real estate commission. With this being said, studies have shown that homes typically sell for more money when handled by a real estate professional. Research posted by the Economists’ Outlook Blog revealed that:

“The median selling price for all FSBO homes was $210,000 last year. When the buyer knew the seller in FSBO sales, the number sinks to the median selling price of $151,900. However, homes that were sold with the assistance of an agent had a median selling price of $249,000 – nearly $40,000 more for the typical home sale.”

Bottom Line

Price your house at or slightly below the current market value and hire a professional. That will guarantee you maximize the price you get for your house. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Rents Still Skyrocketing

Zillow recently revealed that the 43 million renter households in the US spent $535 billion on rent in 2015. Aggregate numbers like these often make it difficult to truly assess a situation. For more clarity, we want to share some points that were made in a Wall Street Journal article earlier this month. The article made two important points:

1. Rents are increasing faster than the last several years:  “Apartment rents increased faster last year than at any time since 2007.” 2. Rent increases are accelerating “Another report from Axiometrics Inc., a Dallas-based apartment research company, showed that rents increased 4.7% in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier, the strongest year-end performance since 2005”. Here is a graph to illustrate the rate of increase over the last several years: Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact: David Demangos 858.232.8410 Locally Known, Globally Connected Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Global Property Specialist David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Future Home Values: Where Do The Experts Think They Are Headed?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 3.7% over the course of 2016, 3.3% in 2017 and 3.2% in the next two years, and finally 3.1% in 2020 (as shown below). That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.3% over the next 5 years. The prediction for cumulative appreciation slowed slightly from 21.6% to 17.7% by 2020. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 10.9%.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!