Foreclosure Numbers Today Aren’t Like 2008

If you've been keeping up with the news lately, you've probably come across headlines talking about the increase in foreclosures in today’s housing market. This may have left you with some uncertainty, especially if you're considering buying a home. It’s important to understand the context of these reports to know the truth about what’s happening today.

According to a recent report from ATTOM, a property data provider, foreclosure filings are up 2% compared to the previous quarter and 8% since one year ago. While media headlines are drawing attention to this increase, reporting on just the number could actually generate worry for fear that prices could crash. The reality is, while increasing, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed.

Let’s look at the latest information with context so we can see how this compares to previous years.

It Isn’t the Dramatic Increase Headlines Would Have You Believe

In recent years, the number of foreclosures has been down to record lows. That’s because, in 2020 and 2021, the forbearance program and other relief options for homeowners helped millions of homeowners stay in their homes, allowing them to get back on their feet during a very challenging period. And with home values rising at the same time, many homeowners who may have found themselves facing foreclosure under other circumstances were able to leverage their equity and sell their houses rather than face foreclosure. Moving forward, equity will continue to be a factor that can help keep people from going into foreclosure.

As the government’s moratorium came to an end, there was an expected rise in foreclosures. But just because foreclosures are up doesn’t mean the housing market is in trouble. As Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, says:

“Many of these foreclosures would have occurred during the pandemic, but were put off due to federal, state, and local foreclosure moratoriums designed to keep people in their homes . . . Real estate experts have stressed that this isn’t a repeat of the Great Recession. It’s not that scores of homeowners suddenly can’t afford their mortgage payments. Rather, many lenders are now catching up. The foreclosures would have happened during the pandemic if moratoriums hadn’t halted the proceedings.”

In a recent article, Bankrate also explains:

“In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes. Lenders weren’t filing default notices during the height of the pandemic, pushing foreclosures to record lows in 2020. And while there has been a slight uptick in foreclosures since then, it’s nothing like it was.”

Basically, there’s not a sudden flood of foreclosures coming. Instead, some of the increase is due to the delayed activity explained above while more is from economic conditions.

To further paint the picture of just how different the situation is now compared to the housing crash, take a look at the graph below. It uses data on foreclosure filings for the first half of each year since 2008 to show foreclosure activity has been consistently lower since the crash.



While foreclosures are climbing, it’s clear foreclosure activity now is nothing like it was back then. Today, foreclosures are far below the record-high number that was reported when the housing market crashed.

In addition to all the factors mentioned above, that’s also largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans.

Bottom Line

Right now, putting the data into context is more important than ever. While the housing market is experiencing an expected rise in foreclosures, it’s nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst, and that won’t lead to a crash in home prices.

David Demangos - eXp Realty

Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® DRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
We Go to Extremes to Fulfill Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016, 2017, 2018,2019,2020,& 2021 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

What You Actually Need To Know About the Number of Foreclosures in Today’s Housing Market

While you may have seen recent stories about the volume of foreclosures today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The goal was to help homeowners financially during the uncertainty created by the health crisis.

When the forbearance program began, many experts were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market, as there was after the housing crash in 2008. Here’s a look at why the number of foreclosures we’re seeing today is nothing like the last time.

1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble

Today’s data shows that most homeowners are exiting their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The graph below depicts those findings from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA):



The same MBA report mentioned above estimates there are approximately 525,000 homeowners who remain in forbearance today. Thankfully, those people still have the chance to work out a suitable repayment plan with the servicing company that represents their lender.

2. Most Homeowners Have Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

For those who are exiting the forbearance program without a plan in place, many will have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosures. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home.

Marina Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis at MBA, says:

“Given the nation’s limited housing inventory and the variety of home retention and foreclosure alternatives on the table across various loan types, . . . Borrowers have more choices today to either stay in their homes or sell without resorting to a foreclosure.”

3. There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years

One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was it gave homeowners facing difficulties an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That helped prevent the foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available.

Even as people leave the forbearance program, there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic. That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019 (see graph below):


4. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb New Listings

When the foreclosures in 2008 hit the market, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. It’s exactly the opposite today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals:

“Total housing inventory at the end of March totaled 950,000 units, up 11.8% from February and down 9.5% from one year ago (1.05 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month supply at the present sales pace, up from 1.7 months in February and down from 2.1 months in March 2021.”

A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.0 months, today’s housing market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won’t be enough inventory to meet the current demand.

Bottom Line

If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years.

If you have questions, let’s connect to talk through the latest market conditions and what they mean for you.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - eXp Realty

Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® DRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
We Go to Extremes to Fulfill Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016, 2017, 2018,2019,2020,& 2021 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

The Foreclosure Crisis: 10 Years Later

CoreLogic recently released a report entitled, United States Residential Foreclosure Crisis: 10 Years Later, in which they examined the years leading up to the crisis all the way through to present day.

With a peak in 2010 when nearly 1.2 million homes were foreclosed on, over 7.7 million families lost their homes throughout the entire foreclosure crisis.

Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, had this to say,

“The country experienced a wild ride in the mortgage market between 2008 and 2012, with the foreclosure peak occurring in 2010. As we look back over 10 years of the foreclosure crisis, we cannot ignore the connection between jobs and homeownership. A healthy economy is driven by jobs coupled with consumer confidence that usually leads to homeownership.”

Since the peak, foreclosures have been steadily on the decline by nearly 100,000 per year all the way through the end of 2016, as seen in the chart below.



If this trend continues, the country will be back to 2005 levels by the end of 2017.

Bottom Line

As the economy continues to improve, and employment numbers increase, the number of completed foreclosures should continue to decrease.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Are Foreclosures Increasing or Decreasing?

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the size of the foreclosure inventory in the nation. There has been some speculation that distressed property inventories are about to skyrocket. Today, we want to reveal what is actually taking place in this segment of the housing market. CoreLogic, in their most recent National Foreclosure Report, reported that foreclosure inventory has decreased by 23.2% since this time last year. The report also showed that foreclosure inventory has decreased in 49 of the 50 states and that 45 states have posted a year-over-year, double-digit decline (see chart below).

  Other findings in the report:

• The Seriously Delinquent Rate (homeowners more than 90 days behind in their mortgage payment) is 3.1% which is the lowest level since November 2007
• The Foreclosure Rate is 1.1% which is also the lowest level since November 2007
• This was the 53^rd consecutive month that showed a decline in the Foreclosure Rate

Though foreclosures do remain in the market, the number is dramatically decreasing. The fact that mortgage delinquency rates are also decreasing means the worst of the foreclosure crisis is in the rearview mirror. 

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

858.232.8410

Locally Known, Globally Connected

Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Foreclosure Inventory Down 34.3% from Last Year

According to the latest CoreLogic National Foreclusure Report. Approximately 552,000 homes in the US were in some state of foreclosure as of December 2014. This figure is down 34.3% from the 840,000 homes in December of 2013. December marked the 38th consecutive month in which there were year-over-year declines. Anand Nallathambl, the President and CEO of CoreLogic, is hopeful for the future, saying:

“At current foreclosure rates, we expect to see the foreclosure inventory in the U.S. drop below 500,000 homes sometime in the first quarter of 2015 which would be another milestone in the healing of the housing market.” The map below shows the percentage of foreclosure inventory in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C. Thirty-six states have inventory below the national rate of 1.4% and can be seen in two shades of green.  Bottom Line Even though some states have not recovered completely from the foreclosure crisis, the nation as a whole is on the right track as inventory decreases. Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact: David Demangos 858.232.8410 Locally Known, Globally Connected Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Global Property Specialist David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Boomerang Buyers Back in the Housing Market

Chances are that you have never heard of a "boomerang buyer" before. “Boomerang buyers” are former home owners who have gone through a short sale, foreclosure, or bankruptcy in the past few years and are saving up for a down payment to purchase a home again—are coming back. In fact, recently I sold a home to a nice man who short-sold his home, built his credit back up and purchased a new home in just around twenty five months. 

See Buyers Testimonial by Pressing Here...

Boomeranger's are expected to flood markets in some of the hardest hit areas for short sales and foreclosures in the coming years. They are predicted to account for nearly one in every five home sales in the certain metro areas this year.

Rising rents and the desire to own again now that the economy is more stable are driving many boomerang buyers to re-enter the market. They also want to jump in before interest rates and home prices climb too much higher.

But how soon they can jump back in will depend on the type of loan they had as a previous home owner. According to my trustworthy lenders, boomerang buyers who had FHA loans may need to wait only three years if they can prove that a hardship, such as job loss or death of a wage earner, led to their foreclosure or short sale.

Borrowers have typically been required to wait five to seven years to qualify for another loan, but mortgage giants have begun to change their rules to allow home owners who underwent a foreclosure or short sale to qualify sooner. Those who underwent a short sale will likely qualify the soonest. However, not all lenders are participating, so borrowers will need to shop around. I can pass referrals to my trusted lenders if your looking!

Freddie Mac’s wait time is usually four years following a short sale or deed-in-lieu, and seven years after a foreclosure. Fannie Mae may require a seven-year wait for a foreclosure, but only a two-year wait following a short sale as long as the borrower can provide a 20 percent down payment.

Who do you know looking to buy, sell or invest in real estate? Call:

David Demangos
Keller Williams Realty
Cell:  858.232.8410
Realtor® BRE# 01905183

San Diego Real Estate Area Expert / Green Specialist / ALC Committee
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

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