Expect the Unexpected: Anticipating Volatility in Today’s Housing Market

You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why.

At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it.

What’s Driving Today’s Market Volatility?

Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility.

You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month.

And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: 

“After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.”

This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.”

Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts.

As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional.

The Importance of Partnering with a Pro

While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals.

For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there.

And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market.

Bottom Line

The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way.

Let’s turn any uncertainty into your advantage, helping you move forward with confidence.

David Demangos - eXp Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® DRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
We Go to Extremes to Fulfill Real Estate Dreams

Why Selling Your House with a Real Estate Professional Is Essential

Selling your house is no simple task. And when you sell on your own – known as a FSBO (or For Sale by Owner) – you’re responsible for handling some of the more difficult aspects of the process without the expert guidance you need.

The 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys homeowners who recently sold their house on their own and asks what difficulties they faced. Those sellers say some of the biggest headaches are prepping their house for sale, pricing it right, and handling the required paperwork.

Working with an agent is the best way to ensure you have an expert on your side to guide you at every turn. Agents have the skills and knowledge that are essential to navigating each step with ease, efficiency, and accuracy. Here are just a few things a real estate agent will do to make sure you get the most out of your sale. 

1. Make the Best First Impression

Selling your house requires a significant amount of time and effort. Doing it right takes expertise and an understanding of today’s buyers. Your agent knows the answers to common questions, such as: 

Do I need to take down my personal art?
How much landscaping does my house need?
What colors should I paint my walls?

Your time and money are important, and you don’t want to waste either one focusing on the wrong things. A real estate advisor relies on their experience to answer these questions and more, allowing you to make the right investments to prep your house before you list. 

2. Maximize Your Buyer Pool – and Your Sale

Today, the average home is getting 3.6 offers per sale according to recent data from NAR. That’s great news if you’re planning to sell, since the more offers you receive, the more likely you are to sell your house in a bidding war, and for a higher price.

Real estate agents have an assortment of tools at their disposal, like social media followers and agency resources, that will ensure your house is viewed by the most buyers. Without access to these tools and your agent’s marketing expertise, your buyer pool – and your home’s selling potential – is limited. 

3. Understand the Documentation, Including the Fine Print

Today, when a house is sold, more disclosures and regulations are mandatory, meaning the number of legal documents to juggle is growing. It’s hard to understand all the requirements and fine print (especially if you’re not an expert). That’s why your advisor is an invaluable guide.

Your agent knows exactly what needs to happen, what all the paperwork means, and can work through it efficiently. They’ll help you review the documentation and avoid any costly missteps that could happen if you tackle it on your own. 

4. Act as Your Expert Negotiator

If you sell without an agent, you’ll also be solely responsible for all negotiations. That means you have to coordinate with: 

The buyer, who wants the best deal possible
The buyer’s agent, who will use their expertise to advocate for the buyer
The inspection company, which works for the buyer and will almost always find concerns with the house
The appraiser, who assesses the property’s value to protect the lender

Instead of going toe-to-toe with all these parties alone, lean on an expert. Your agent relies on experience and training to make the right moves throughout the negotiation. They’ll know what levers to pull, how to address each individual concern, and when you may want to get a second opinion. When you sell your house yourself, you’ll need to be prepared to have these conversations on your own. 

5. Price It Right

Real estate professionals have the expertise to price your house accurately and competitively. To do so, they compare your house to recently sold homes in your area and factor in the current condition of your house. These factors are key to making sure your house is priced to move quickly and get you the maximum return on your investment.

When you sell as a FSBO, you’re operating without this advantage. That could cost you in the long run if you price your house too high or too low. 

Bottom Line

There’s a lot that goes into selling your house, and it takes time, effort, and expertise to truly maximize your sale. Instead of tackling it alone, let’s connect to make sure you have an expert on your side.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - eXp Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® DRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
We Go to Extremes to Fulfill Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016, 2017, 2018,& 2019 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Seniors Are on the Move in the Real Estate Market

Did you know August 21st is National Senior Citizens Day? According to the United States Census, we honor senior citizens today because,

“Throughout our history, older people have achieved much for our families, our communities, and our country. That remains true today and gives us ample reason…to reserve a special day in honor of the senior citizens who mean so much to our land.”

To give proper recognition, we’re going to look at some senior-related data in the housing industry.

According to the Population Reference Bureau,

“The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to nearly double from 52 million in 2018 to 95 million by 2060, and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population will rise from 16 percent to 23 percent.”
Seniors Believe in Homeownership

In a recent report, Freddie Mac compared the homeownership rates of two groups of seniors: the Good Times Cohort (born from 1931-1941) and the Previous Generations(born in the 1930s). The data shows an increase in the homeownership rate for the Good Times Cohort because seniors are now aging in place, living longer, and maintaining a high quality 

of life into their later years

.

This, however, does not mean all seniors are staying in place. Some are actively buying and selling homes. In the 2019 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) showed the percentage of seniors buying and 

selling:

Here are some highlights from NAR’s report:

Buyers ages 54 to 63 had higher median household incomes and were more likely to be married couples.

12% of buyers ages 54 to 63 are first-time homebuyers, 5% (64 to 72), and 4% (73 to 93).

Buyers ages 54 to 63 purchased because of an interest in being closer to friends and families, job relocation, and the desire to own a home of their own.

Sellers 54 years and older often downsized and purchased a smaller, less expensive home than the one they sold.

Sellers ages 64 to 72 lived in their homes for 21 years or more.

Bottom Line

According to NAR’s report, 58% of buyers ages 64 to 72 said they need help from an agent to find the right home. The transition from a current home to a new one is significant to undertake, especially for anyone who has lived in the same house for many years. If you’re a senior thinking about the process, let’s get together to help you make the move as smoothly as possible.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® DRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016, 2017 & 2018 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

3 Things You Need in a Shifting Real Estate Market

Whether you are thinking of selling your house or buying a home, today’s real estate headlines can be confusing – perhaps even concerning. What is actually happening with mortgage rates? Are home values dropping or are they just rising at a slower pace? What impact will the economy have on the housing market? 

If you are either a buyer or seller (or both), you need to know what it will mean to your family if you go ahead with the move. You need to understand three things:

1. What is happening in the housing market right now?

Consumers must get past those fear-mongering headlines and gain a deep understanding of what is truly happening. How strong is buyer demand right now? How much competition do listings have today compared to what they will have in the spring? People want to make an educated decision on what is probably their family’s greatest financial asset.

2. Why is it happening?

Understanding the individual pieces that impact the sale or purchase of real estate is important. Understanding how those pieces impact each other is critical. How does the amount of a down payment impact the mortgage rate a buyer will be offered? Can you still price your house a ‘little ahead’ of the market and still be sure it will sell?

3. How do the first two affect your local market?

Basically, you want an understanding of the overall housing market and a simple and effective explanation of how it will impact your personal real estate goals.

Bottom Line

The best way to get all three is to work with a professional who understands this shifting real estate market and can expertly guide you on the journey to reach your housing goals. Let’s get together to discuss what today’s market means for you.

Members: Download your copy of “How to Succeed in a Shifting Real Estate Market” on the eGuides page to learn more about ways you can navigate today’s market!

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016, 2017 & 2018 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

2 Factors to Watch in Today’s Real Estate Market Whether Buying or Selling

When it comes to buying or selling a home there are many factors you should consider. Where you want to live, why you want to buy or sell, and who will help you along your journey are just some of those factors. When it comes to today’s real estate market, though, the top two factors to consider are what’s happening with interest rates & inventory.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and are now over three-quarters of a percentage point higher than they were at the beginning of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.72% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week.

The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.

Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.

The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.



With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be over 5% by this time next year.

Inventory

A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 4.3-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 78 straight months.

The inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last three months.

The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, in June, July, and August, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.



This is a trend to watch as we move further into the fall and winter months. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.

Bottom Line

If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to discuss the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory and what they could mean for you.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Is the Real Estate Market Finally Getting Back to Normal?

The housing market has been anything but normal for the last eleven years. In a normal real estate market, home prices appreciate 3.7% annually. Below, however, are the price swings since 2007 according to the latest Home Price Expectation Survey:

After the bubble burst in June 2007, values depreciated 6.1% annually until February 2012. From March 2012 to today, the market has been recovering with values appreciating 6.2% annually.

These wild swings in values were caused by abnormal ratios between the available supply of inventory and buyer demand in the market. In a normal market, there would be a 6-month supply of housing inventory.

When the market hit its peak in 2007, homeowners and builders were trying to take advantage of a market that was fueled by an “irrational exuberance.”

Inventory levels grew to 7+ months. With that many homes available for sale, there weren’t enough buyers to satisfy the number of homeowners/builders trying to sell, so prices began to fall.

Then, foreclosures came to market. We eventually hit 11 months inventory which caused prices to crash until early 2012. By that time, inventory levels had fallen to 6.2 months and the market began its recovery.

Over the last five years, inventory levels have remained well below the 6-month supply needed for prices to continue to level off. As a result, home prices have increased over that time at percentages well above the appreciation levels seen in a more normal market.
That was the past. What about the future?

We currently have about 4.5-months inventory. This means prices should continue to appreciate at above-normal levels which most experts believe will happen for the next year. However, two things have just occurred that are pointing to the fact that we may be returning to a more normal market.

1. Listing Supply is Increasing

Both existing and new construction inventory is on the rise. The latest Existing Home Sales Reportfrom the National Association of Realtors revealed that inventory has increased over the last two months after thirty-seven consecutive months of declining inventory. At the same time, building permits are also increasing which means more new construction is about to come to market. 

2. Buyer Demand is Softening

Ivy Zelman, who is widely respected as an industry expert, reported in her latest ‘Z’ Report:

“While we continue to expect a resumption of growth in resale transactions on the back of easing inventory in 2019 and 2020, our real-time view into the market through our Real Estate Broker Surveydoes suggest that buyers have grown more discerning of late and a level of “pause” has taken hold in many large housing markets.

Indicative of this, our broker contacts rated buyer demand at 69 on a 0- 100 scale, still above average but down from 74 last year and representing the largest year-over-year decline in the two-year history of our survey.”

With supply increasing and demand waning, we may soon be back to a more normal real estate market. We will no longer be in a buyers’ market (like 2007-February 2012) or a sellers’ market (like March 2012- Today).

Prices won’t appreciate at the levels we’ve seen recently, nor will they depreciate. It will be a balanced market where prices remain steady, where buyers will be better able to afford a home, and where sellers will more easily be able to move-up or move-down to a home that better suits their current lifestyles.

Bottom Line

Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange.

That’s what is about to happen in real estate. The housing market is not falling apart. We are just returning to a more normal market which, in the long run, will be much healthier for you whether you are a buyer or a seller.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

The Difference an Hour Makes in Real Estate

Every Hour in the US Housing Market: 

624 Homes Sell
347 Homes Regain Positive Equity
Median Home Values Go Up $1.13

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Real Estate Mogul: Here’s Why You Should Buy

Real Estate mogul, Sean Conlon, host of The Deed: Chicago on CNBC, was recently asked the question, should you buy? Or should you rent a house?  

Conlon responded:
“I am a true believer that you save every penny and you buy your first house… and that is still the fastest path to wealth in this country.”

Conlon went on to suggest that first-time buyers put down 10-20% “if they can make it work,” and to remain in their home at least 4-5 years to see a return on their investment.

Who is Sean Conlon, and why should you listen to his advice?
Within a few years of working in the real estate industry, Conlon had established himself as one of the leading agents in the United States and has founded 3 billion-dollar brokerages dealing in residential, commercial and investment sales. Since immigrating to America from the United Kingdom in 1990, he believes very strongly in the American Dream and the role that homeownership plays in achieving it. Conlon is quoted on his website as saying:

“I treat people the way I would like to be treated if I went in to buy a house and I work harder than anybody I know. I think if you do that in America, you will always succeed.”

Bottom Line
Homeownership is an investment you can leverage against in the future that not only provides shelter and safety but also helps you build your family’s wealth. If you are debating whether or not to purchase a home this year, let’s get together to discuss the opportunities available in today’s market!

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Is Qualifying for a Mortgage Getting Easier?

There has been a lot of talk about how difficult it is to get a home mortgage in today’s lending environment. However, three recent reports have revealed that lending standards are beginning to ease. This is great news for both first time buyers and current homeowners looking to move or buy a second vacation/retirement home. Let’s look at the three reports: The MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index This index, issued by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, measures the availability of credit available in the home mortgage market. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of a loosening of credit. We can see that the index has been increasing nicely this year: Fannie Mae’s latest Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey This survey revealed that more lenders report that mortgage lending standards across all loan types are easing. The survey asked senior mortgage executives whether their company’s credit standards have eased, tightened, or remained essentially unchanged during the prior three months. The gap between lenders reporting easing as opposed to tightening over the prior three months jumped to approximately 20%. This represented a new survey high of "net easing." In addition, the share of lenders who expect their organizations to ease credit standards over the next three months also ticked up this quarter. Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, addressed this easing of standards: "For the first time in seven quarters, we see a pronounced increase in the share of lenders, particularly medium- and larger-sized lenders, reporting on net an easing of credit standards … This is a significant result in light of public discourse on credit availability and standards … Overall, we expect that lenders' tendency toward easing credit standards, together with relatively low mortgage rates and a strengthening labor market, will continue to support the housing market expansion." Ellie Mae’s latest Origination Insights Report The easing of credit standards is also confirmed in this report which showed that the average FICO score on a closed loan fell to its lowest point in well over a year. Here is a chart of average FICO scores on closed loans so far in 2015: Just keep an eye on interest rates… Although this is all great news, there was one challenge in the recently released data. Ellie Mae reported that the average interest rate on closed loans is beginning to inch upward: What this means to you… If you are a first time buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving up to a bigger home or buying a vacation home, now may be the time to act. Mortgage lending standards are beginning to ease and interest rates are beginning to inch up. Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact: David Demangos 858.232.8410 Locally Known, Globally Connected Luxury Home Marketing Specialist Global Property Specialist David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!