2 Things You Need to Know to Properly Price Your Home

In today’s housing market, home prices are increasing at a slower pace (3.7%) than they have over the last eight years (6-7%). However, they are still are above historical norms. Low supply of listed homes and high demand from buyers has pushed prices to rise rapidly.

In the mind of the homeowner, annual home price appreciation over 6% has become the new normal. This becomes a challenge when a homeowner looks to refinance or sell their home, as the expectation of what the homeowner believes the home should be worth does not always line up with the bank’s appraisal.

Every month, the Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) measures the disparity between what a homeowner seeking to refinance their home believes their house is worth and what an appraiser’s evaluation of that same home is.

Over the last five months, the gap between the homeowner’s opinion and the bank’s appraisal has widened to -0.78%. This is important for homeowners to note, as even a 0.78% difference in appraisal can mean thousands of dollars that a buyer or seller would have to come up with at closing (depending on the price of the home).

The chart below illustrates the changes in home price estimates over the last 12 months.


While the appraisal gap widens, another trend is also becoming more common.

According to realtor.com, “the share of homes which had their prices cut increased by 2% compared to last year”. Thirty-seven out of the 50 largest US housing markets saw an increase in overall price reductions.

In today’s market, you need an expert agent who can help price your house right from the start. Homeowners who make the mistake of overpricing their homes will eventually have to drop the price. This leaves buyers wondering if the price drop was caused by something wrong with the house. In reality, nothing is wrong- the price was just too high!

Bottom Line

If you are planning on selling your house in today’s market, let’s get together to set your listing price properly from the start!

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
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Lack of Listings Slowing Down the Market

As the real estate market continues to move down the road to a complete recovery, we see home values and home sales increasing while distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) continue to fall to their lowest points in years. There is no doubt that the housing market will continue to strengthen throughout 2018.

However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory!
Here’s what a few industry experts have to say about the current inventory crisis:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors

“Inventory coming onto the market during this year’s spring buying season…was not even close to being enough to satisfy demand, that is why home prices keep outpacing incomes and listings are going under contract in less than a month – and much faster – in many parts of the country.”

Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac

“While this spring’s sudden rise in mortgage rates [took] up a good chunk of the conversation, it’s the stubbornly low inventory levels in much of the country that are preventing sales from really taking off like they should… Most markets simply need a lot more new and existing supply to cool price growth and give buyers enough choices.”

Alexandra Lee, Housing Data Analyst for Trulia

“This seasonal inventory jump wasn’t enough to offset the historical year-over-year downward trend that has continued over 14 consecutive quarters…Despite the second-quarter gain, inventory was down 5.3% from a year ago. Still, this represents an easing of the double-digit drops we’ve been seeing since the second quarter of 2017.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking about selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strongest while there is still very little competition which could lead to a quick sale for a great price.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Are Lending Standards Propping Up Home Prices?

Back in 2005, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the dramatic increases in residential real estate values as a “froth in housing markets.” Greenspan went on to say:

“The increase in the prevalence of interest-only loans and the introduction of more-exotic forms of adjustable-rate mortgages are developments of particular concern…some households may be employing these instruments to purchase homes that would otherwise be unaffordable, and consequently their use could be adding to pressures in the housing market.”

Greenspan was warning that the loosening of lending standards could lead to disaster. And it did.

With home prices again appreciating at percentages well above historic norms, many are wondering whether the market is again becoming “frothy.” Mortgage standards are much stricter now, however, than they were in 2005.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a monthly index which measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default. A lower score indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards. A higher score indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks.

Their July Housing Credit Availability Index revealed credit availability rose to 5.9%. For context, they went on to explain:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

Here is a graph depicting the Urban Institute’s findings:


Bottom Line

Though it may be slightly easier to get a mortgage today than it was a year ago, lending standards are nowhere near where they were during the build-up to the housing bubble.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

House-Buying Power at Near-Historic Levels

We keep hearing that home affordability is approaching crisis levels. While this may be true in a few metros across the country, housing affordability is not a challenge in the clear majority of the country. In their most recent Real House Price Index, First American reported that consumer “house-buying power” is at “near-historic levels.”

Their index is based on three components:

Median Household Income
Mortgage Interest Rates
Home Prices

The report explains:

“Changing incomes and interest rates either increase or decrease consumer house-buying power or affordability. When incomes rise and/or mortgage rates fall, consumer house-buying power increases.”

Combining these three crucial pieces of the home purchasing process, First American created an index delineating the actual home-buying power that consumers have had dating back to 1991.

Here is a graph comparing First American’s consumer house-buying power (blue area) to the actual median home price that year from the National Association of Realtors (yellow line).



Consumer house-buyer power has been greater than the actual price of a home since 1991. And, the spread is larger over the last decade.

Bottom Line

Even though home prices are increasing rapidly and are now close to the values last seen a decade ago, the actual affordability of a home is much better now. As Chief Economist Mark Fleming explains in the report:

“Though unadjusted house prices have risen to record highs, consumer house-buying power stands at near-historic levels, as well, signaling that real house prices are not even close to their historical peak.”

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Homes More Affordable Today than 1985-2000

Rising home prices have many concerned that the average family will no longer be able to afford the most precious piece of the American Dream – their own home.

However, it is not just the price of a home that determines its affordability. The monthly cost of a home is determined by the price and the interest rate on the mortgage used to purchase it.

Today, mortgage interest rates stand at about 4.5%. The average annual mortgage interest rate from 1985 to 2000 was almost double that number, at 8.92%. When comparing affordability of homeownership over the decades, we must also realize that incomes have increased.

This is why most indexes use the percentage of median income required to make monthly mortgage payments on a typical home as the point of comparison.

Zillow recently released a report comparing home affordability over the decades using this formula. The report revealed that, though homes are less affordable this year than last year, they are more affordable today (17.1%) than they were between 1985-2000 (21%). Additionally, homes are more affordable now than at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006 (25.4%). Here is a chart of these findings:


What will happen when mortgage interest rates rise?

Most experts think that the mortgage interest rate will increase to about 5% by year’s end. How will that impact affordability? Zillow also covered this in their report:



Rates would need to approach 6% before homes became less affordable than they had been historically.

Bottom Line
Though homes are less affordable today than they were last year, they are still a great purchase while interest rates are below the 6% mark.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

How A Lack of Inventory Impacts the Housing Market

The housing crisis is finally in the rear-view mirror as the real estate market moves down the road to a complete recovery. Home values are up, home sales are up, and distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) have fallen to their lowest points in years. The market will continue to strengthen in 2018.

However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory. Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but supply is not keeping up.

Here are the thoughts of a few industry experts on the subject:
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at National Association of Realtors

“The worsening inventory crunch through the first three months of the year inflicted even more upward pressure on home prices in a majority of markets. Following the same trend over the last couple of years, a strengthening job market and income gains are not being met by meaningful sales gains because of unrelenting supply and affordability headwinds.”
Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac

“As we head into late spring, the demand for purchase credit remains rock solid, which should set us up for another robust summer home sales season. While this year’s high rates – up 50 basic points from a year ago – have put pressure on the budgets of some home shoppers, weak inventory levels are what’s keeping the housing market from a stronger sales pace.”
Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Researchfor Realtor.com

“The dynamics of increased competition and buyer frustration are unlikely to change…In fact, the direction of the trend is pointing to a growing mismatch between the pool of prospective buyers and existing inventory.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong at a time when there is very little competition. That could lead to a quick sale for a really good price.

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Selling Your House on Your Own Could Cost You

In this extremely hot real estate market, some homeowners might consider selling their homes on their own which is known as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). They rationalize that they don’t need a real estate agent and believe that they can save the fee for the services a real estate agent offers.

However, a study by Collateral Analytics reveals that FSBOs don’t actually save anything, and in some cases may be costing themselves more, by not listing with an agent.

In the study, they analyzed home sales in a variety of markets. The data showed that:

“FSBOs tend to sell for lower prices than comparable home sales, and in many cases below the average differential represented by the prevailing commission rate.” (emphasis added)
Why would FSBOs net less money than if they had used an agent?

The study makes several suggestions:

“There could be systematic bias on the buyer side as well. FSBO sales might attract more strategic buyers than MLS sales, particularly buyers who rationalize lower-priced bids with the logic that the seller is “saving” a traditional commission.

Such buyers might specifically search for and target sellers who are not getting representational assistance from agents.” In other words, ‘bargain lookers’ might shop FSBOs more often.

“Experienced agents are experts at ‘staging’ homes for sale” which could bring more money for the home.

“Properties listed with a broker that is a member of the local MLS will be listed online with all other participating broker websites, marketing the home to a much larger buyer population. And those MLS properties generally offer compensation to agents who represent buyers, incentivizing them to show and sell the property and again potentially enlarging the buyer pool.” If more buyers see a home, the greater the chances are that there could be a bidding war for the property.

Conclusions from the study:

FSBOs achieve prices significantly lower than those from similar properties sold by Realtors using the MLS.

The data suggests the average price was near 6% lower for FSBO sales of similar properties.

Bottom Line

As Dave Ramsey, America’s trusted voice on money, explains:

“Research has shown that, between mistakes, lack of negotiating skills, pricing errors and general exposure on the market, you’ll cost yourself more than the real estate commission…You’ll come out slightly better and with a lot less hassle if you use a top-shelf agent.”

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

This Just In: Data Says May is the Best Month to Sell Your Home

According to a newly released study by ATTOM Data Solutions, selling your home in the month of May will net you an average of 5.9% above estimated market value for your home.

For the study, ATTOM performed an “analysis of 14.7 million home sales from 2011 to 2017” and found the average seller premium achieved for each month of the year. Below is a breakdown by month:



ATTOM even went a step further and broke their results down by day.
Top 5 Days to Sell:

June 28th – 9.1% above market
February 15th – 9.0% above market
May 31st – 8.3% above market
May 29th – 8.2% above market
June 21st – 8.1% above market

It should come as no surprise that May and June dominate as the top months to sell and that 4 of the top 5 days to sell fall in those two months. The second quarter of the year (April, May, June) is referred to as the Spring Buyers Season, when competition is fierce to find a dream home, which often leads to bidding wars.

One caveat to mention though, is that when broken down by metro, ATTOM noticed that while warmer climates share in the overall trend, it turns out that they have different top months for sales. The best month to get the highest price in Miami, FL, for instance, was January, and Phoenix, AZ came in with November leading the charge.

If you’re thinking of selling your home this year, the time to list is NOW! According to the National Association of Realtors, homes sold in an average of just 30 days last month! If you list now, you’ll have a really good chance to sell in May or June, setting yourself up for getting the best price!

Bottom Line

Let’s get together to discuss the market conditions in our area and get you the most exposure to the buyers who are ready and willing to buy!

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos - Keller Williams Realty
Cell: 858.232.8410 | Realtor® BRE# 01905183
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

San Diego Real Estate Expert | Global Property Specialist
Certified Luxury Marketing Specialist | CLHMS Million Dollar Guild Agent
Green Specialist | Certified International Property Specialist
2016 & 2017 Recognition of Excellence Award Winner SDAR

Just How Fast are San Diego Homes Selling?

 
Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest? Contact:

David Demangos

Cell: 858.232.8410

www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com

Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!

Awesome San Diego Real Estate Sells Carmel Valley CA

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest in Carmel Valley, CA? Contact:

David Demangos
858.232.8410
Locally Known, Globally Connected
Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
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Reasons to Live in Carmel Valley, CA 92130

Looking to Buy, Sell, or Invest in Carmel Valley, CA? Contact:

David Demangos
858.232.8410
Locally Known, Globally Connected
Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Global Property Specialist

David@AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
www.AwesomeSanDiegoRealEstate.com
Our Team Goes to Extremes to Fulfill Your Real Estate Dreams!